The time is coming yet again, every four years we as a nation decide who is going to be the next President of the United States of America. The process of course is not as simple as just going to polls on November 4th (or early) to cast your vote. It starts in the months or years before the actual election where we wait and see who is running for president, then watch and sometimes suffer through the predictable attack ads and general political run around when it comes to the major issue affecting the country. While the overall process hasn’t changed that much, the issues, well that’s an entirely different thing. At the forefront of the 2024 election is reproductive rights, namely abortion rights, and with the growing number of presidential candidates we will get a peek into the next four years — good or horrible.

The Story So Far

Almost a year into the Post-Roe world there are 24 states that have enacted extreme restrictions and total bans on abortions, and with this upcoming election it is not a stretch to state that the outcome could potentially lead to a national abortion ban or not. Currently, there are 10 confirmed candidates:

Democrats

• Joe Biden

• Marianne Williamson

• Robert F. Kennedy Jr.

Republicans

• Donald J. Trump

• Nikki Haley

• Vivek Ramaswamy

• Asa Hutchinson

• Larry Elder

• Tim Scott

• Ron DeSantis

There are still candidates on the Republican side that are considering making a run, including former Vice President Mike Pence, who in no surprise based on his public comments is in favor of banning abortion altogether. For the rest of the candidates, each one will have to go record with their position on the topics of reproductive and abortion rights, and for some, just like Pence, we already know their stance based on their prior actions and rhetoric. 

Biden is a supporter of abortion rights, and on the other side, frontrunners Trump, Haley, and DeSantis have done some political tiptoeing around the issue. Trump, whose three Supreme Court nominees helped to overturn Roe has stated that he is “pro-life” but also that many Republicans poorly handled the topic of abortion. Haley has also stated that she is “pro-life” but also that is an issue that is very deeply personal for everyone. DeSantis has signed some of the most restrictive abortion laws in the country, first signing a 15-week abortion ban into law last year and recently signing a six-week ban, making those actions a clear view on his stance on reproductive rights. 

Divide & Deflection

In most recent polls, roughy over 50% of people are in support of abortion in all or most cases, so this isn’t going to be an issue that can be easily avoided on a national stage, and the fact the current heavy restrictions and bans are in republican states will set up those republican nominees to not only address this that, but also the divide within their own party. 

Republicans are more divided on these questions: While a clear majority say abortion should be legal if a woman’s life is endangered (62%), a slightly smaller share say the same about a pregnancy that is the result of rape (56%). Republicans are far more divided on abortion if the baby is likely to be born with disabilities or health problems: 38% say abortion should be legal in this circumstance, while 29% say it should be illegal and 31% say it depends. (Hartig)

With this divide being present for the world to see, we are also seeing a shift in what’s being talked about other than reproductive rights. Economic issues, which are no stranger to any political election but are quietly being pushed to the front using the general political tact. Also the attack on gender-affirming care by the passing of restrictive bills is being used to deflect from abortion rights. However, whether it is part of the usual game of using a topic to break down your rival to gain votes or to fight for the most basic rights of others, Democratic candidates are going to put abortion back at the forefront and tie those restrictions and bans to every single Republican candidate.

The abortion bans are flatout unpopular, period, and they are setting up political consequences as the race gets closer. The support for abortion rights has grown larger and larger, especially in states that have varying political beliefs and in the states with bans. Now while these bans are being passed, they are also attracting a rising level of public scrutiny and criticism from not only within those states, but nationally, which will no doubt play a part in the Presidential election.     

The Important Bits

As we are close to the one year mark post Roe and we have seen more and more restrictions become law, the cause and effect of that has equal to louder voices in support of abortion rights, and the public disdain for how restrictive these bills are becoming. Did the Republican party overplay their hand or underestimated the national public? That can only be answered on election day, but while many Republican controlled states took advantage when Roe was overturned, in the world of politics, nothing is ever forgotten and it will be used in election time by the other party. So, as we get ready for this wild and anxiety filled ride, make sure to take care of yourself and ask for support when you need it. 

Referenced

Hartig, Hannah. “Opinions vary among Republicans, Democrats on several abortion-related issues.” Pew Research Center, 6 May 2022, https://www.pewresearch.org/short-reads/2022/05/06/wide-partisan-gaps-in-abortion-attitudes-but-opinions-in-both-parties-are-complicated/. Accessed 31 May 2023.